Annual Mean Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Climatology and Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Azores Region and Its Relation to Climate Indices

Daily sea surface temperature (SST) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer from 1982 to 2020 were used to study the spatiotemporal variability and climatology of SST in the Azores. In addition, the relationships between the SST anomaly (SSTA) and three climate index time series for the period 1982-2020 were investigated: the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The spatiotemporal variability and climatology of the SST were studied by analyzing annual, seasonal, and monthly mean SST time series and climate fields. Relationships between the SSTA and climate index time series were investigated using Pearson's correlation analysis and wavelet coherence analysis. The annual mean SST time series shows a positive linear trend of about 0.027°C per year over the period 1982-2020. The spatial variability of the linear trend shows that the positive trend is consistent throughout the study area, ranging from 0.024 to 0.034°C per year. The spatial variability is not uniform, and high values of the trend are observed in the upper northwestern part and southwestern half of the basin. Seasonal mean SST fields show a positive North-South latitudinal gradient, with higher temperatures in the south, especially in the southwestern basin. In addition, the seasonal mean SST fields show possible coastal upwelling signatures along the coast of the Azores islands in different seasons. The results of Pearson's correlation analysis between basin-averaged, de-trended monthly mean SSTA and climate indices show that SSTA shows a significant positive correlation with SOI and a negative correlation with ONI from 1982 to 2020. NAO shows positive correlation with SSTA for the December-January-February season. Wavelet coherence analysis confirms significant coherences between the Azores SSTA and the climate-ocean indices at certain time scales and periods.

Mesoscale mosaics of interannual variations in surface temperature, chlorophyll a concentration, and their relation in a coastal fishing ground

AbstractTo test the potential of high‐resolution satellite image analysis for assessing and predicting the mesoscale (<10 km in this study) effects of climate and environmental change on temperature and primary productivity in fishing grounds, we conducted satellite image analysis around an island in a coastal strait west of Japan from 2018 to 2023. We observed a distinct north–south gradient in sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) over approximately 20 km of the transect, which was likely affected by the current system. The model configuration suggests that the frequency of southward currents during winter–spring can control the magnitude of spring phytoplankton blooms. In the study region, an increase in SST at a rate of 0.06–0.13°C y−1 occurred during the study period, accompanied by a decrease in CHL. The north–south gradient in the rate of change suggests that the variation in the temperature and flow rate of the Kuroshio Current into the study area was due to these abrupt changes. The relationship between the annual mean SST and CHL was also spatially heterogeneous, showing a higher sensitivity of CHL to SST in the southwest of the island than in the north. In addition to the intrusion of warm and oligotrophic Kuroshio waters, the spread of less saline and more eutrophic coastal waters likely influenced this spatial heterogeneity. The satellite image analysis in the present study successfully revealed mesoscale mosaics of environmental conditions in coastal fishery grounds.

Environmental drivers of global variation in home range size of terrestrial and marine mammals.

As animal home range size (HRS) provides valuable information for species conservation, it is important to understand the driving factors of HRS variation. It is widely known that differences in species traits (e.g. body mass) are major contributors to variation in mammal HRS. However, most studies examining how environmental variation explains mammal HRS variation have been limited to a few species, or only included a single (mean) HRS estimate for the majority of species, neglecting intraspecific HRS variation. Additionally, most studies examining environmental drivers of HRS variation included only terrestrial species, neglecting marine species. Using a novel dataset of 2800 HRS estimates from 586 terrestrial and 27 marine mammal species, we quantified the relationships between HRS and environmental variables, accounting for species traits. Our results indicate that terrestrial mammal HRS was on average 5.3 times larger in areas with low human disturbance (human footprint index [HFI] = 0), compared to areas with maximum human disturbance (HFI = 50). Similarly, HRS was on average 5.4 times larger in areas with low annual mean productivity (NDVI = 0), compared to areas with high productivity (NDVI = 1). In addition, HRS increased by a factor of 1.9 on average from low to high seasonality in productivity (standard deviation (SD) of monthly NDVI from 0 to 0.36). Of these environmental variables, human disturbance and annual mean productivity explained a larger proportion of HRS variance than seasonality in productivity. Marine mammal HRS decreased, on average, by a factor of 3.7 per 10°C decline in annual mean sea surface temperature (SST), and increased by a factor of 1.5 per 1°C increase in SST seasonality (SD of monthly values). Annual mean SST explained more variance in HRS than SST seasonality. Due to the small sample size, caution should be taken when interpreting the marine mammal results. Our results indicate that environmental variation is relevant for HRS and that future environmental changes might alter the HRS of individuals, with potential consequences for ecosystem functioning and the effectiveness of conservation actions.

Holocene Paleoclimate Records in Equatorial West Africa: Insights Based on the Characterization of Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers

One gravity core retrieved from the Niger Delta was used to explore the origin of deposited organic matter (OM) and the paleo-climatic and environmental conditions over the Holocene in equatorial West Africa. The geochemical properties of sediments including glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) and elemental (%OC, %N, C/N) and isotopic (δ13Corg, δ15N) signatures were determined. The determination constrained the age of the column and revealed that the sediment OM was mainly derived from a marine source. The isoprenoid (iso)GDGTs were the dominant GDGTs, with a small amount of branched (br)GDGTs, which led to a low-branched and isoprenoid tetraether index (BIT, 0.02–0.21) and represented a low terrestrial input. Most isoGDGTs and OH-GDGTs were produced in situ by Marine Group I (MG-I) Thaumarchaeota, while the brGDGTs were mainly transported from land. A two-endmember model quantified the contribution of terrestrial OM, as 0.9–19.9% by BIT and 1.1–32.6% by δ13C. Accordingly, the millennium-scale sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were reconstructed based on the cyclopentane ring distribution (TEX86H) and the ring index of OH-GDGTs (RI-OH). The top core SSTs were lower than the modern mean annual SST due to the growth season and habitat depth of Thaumarchaeota. The reconstructed SSTs clearly revealed the four stages of paleoclimate change, in particular, the drought episode of 8.2 kyr and the following humid period. The above research has enhanced our understanding of the paleoclimate change in river outflow during the Holocene at the millennium scale.

Enhanced risk of record-breaking regional temperatures during the 2023–24 El Niño

In 2023, the development of El Niño is poised to drive a global upsurge in surface air temperatures (SAT), potentially resulting in unprecedented warming worldwide. Nevertheless, the regional patterns of SAT anomalies remain diverse, obscuring where historical warming records may be surpassed in the forthcoming year. Our study underscores the significant influence of El Niño and the persistence of climate signals on the inter-annual variability of regional SAT, both in amplitude and spatial distribution. The likelihood of global mean SAT exceeding historical records, calculated from July 2023 to June 2024, is estimated at 90%, contingent upon annual-mean sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific exceeding 0.6 °C. Regions particularly susceptible to recording record-high SAT include coastal and adjacent areas in Asia such as the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, as well as Alaska, the Caribbean Sea, and the Amazon. This impending warmth heightens the risk of year-round marine heatwaves and escalates the threat of wildfires and other negative consequences in Alaska and the Amazon basin, necessitating strategic mitigation measures to minimize potential worst-case impacts.

Large-scale environmental signals in seagrass blue carbon stocks are hidden by high variability at local scales

Increasing focus on nature-based climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies has led to the recognition of seagrasses as globally significant organic carbon (Corg) stocks. However, estimates of carbon stocks have been generally confined to a few regions, with few African studies represented in global datasets. In addition, the extent to which biogeographical and environmental variation shape carbon stocks in marine vegetated environments remains uncertain. For South Africa, Zostera capensis is the dominant seagrass species with limited mapping and quantification of its Corg stocks. Here, we measured Z. capensis Corg stocks at six South African estuaries spanning ∼1800 km of the cool-temperate to subtropical marine environmental gradient. Targeting the intertidal zone of the upper and lower estuary reaches, we collected Z. capensis sediments to a depth of 50 cm and measured the Corg, with the median Corg stock estimated at 24.11 Mg C ha−1 (40.4 ± 53.02; mean ± SD). While this is lower than the global average, these data demonstrate that Z. capensis ecosystems are important contributors to blue carbon stocks in the region. Measured Corg stocks showed significant differences between sampling sites for estuaries; however, we did not detect significant differences between estuaries due to high intra-estuarine Corg variability. Examination of biogeographical regions, terrestrial and marine environmental variables as drivers of Corg variability revealed that annual mean sea surface temperature may explain variation in Corg stocks. Furthermore, we found evidence of signals of biogeographical regions and precipitation driving some of the variability in Corg stocks; however, this requires further investigation. Overall, our estimates for Z. capensis add to ongoing national and global efforts to quantify seagrass Corg stocks across environmental and biogeographic gradients to better determine their contributions as nature-based solutions to climate change.

Evaluating isoprenoidal hydroxylated GDGT-based temperature proxies in surface sediments from the global ocean

Recently developed temperature proxies based on hydroxylated isoprenoid Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers (OH-isoGDGTs), such as %OH, RI-OH, RI-OH′ and OHC, have shown potential for reconstructing past temperature changes. However, progress has been limited by the lack of a global core-top calibration with ample geographical coverage. Here, we compile an extensive global surface sediment dataset of OH-isoGDGTs as well as regular isoprenoid GDGTs (isoGDGTs), with both data generated at NIOZ (n = 575) and previously published data from other laboratories (n = 297). We find interlaboratory differences for proxy indices that incorporate both OH-isoGDGTs and regular isoGDGTs, indicating that care must be taken in compiling large GDGT datasets from multiple laboratories. Our results confirm a strong temperature signal in the isoGDGT distribution, especially for OH-isoGDGT-0 and non-hydroxylated isoGDGTs, but also reveal that water depth might have an impact on the distribution of OH-isoGDGTs with 1 and 2 cyclopentane moieties. This will affect the RI-OH and RI-OH′ indices, particularly in tropical regions, where OH-isoGDGT-0 occurs at low abundance. We explore new proxy indices that combine the temperature dependence of both isoGDGT and OH-isoGDGT distributions and propose the use of TEX86OH, which includes OH-isoGDGT-0 in the denominator of the TEX86 index. This modification leads to a much higher temperature sensitivity of the index, especially in regions with annual mean sea surface temperatures between 5 and 15 °C. Application of this novel paleothermometer to a polar sediment core suggests that this proxy is likely to result in more reliable temperature reconstructions in polar regions where OH-isoGDGTs are abundant.

Impact of Holocene environmental change on the evolutionary ecology of an Arctic top predator.

The Arctic is among the most climatically sensitive environments on Earth, and the disappearance of multiyear sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is predicted within decades. As apex predators, polar bears are sentinel species for addressing the impact of environmental variability on Arctic marine ecosystems. By integrating genomics, isotopic analysis, morphometrics, and ecological modeling, we investigate how Holocene environmental changes affected polar bears around Greenland. We uncover reductions in effective population size coinciding with increases in annual mean sea surface temperature, reduction in sea ice cover, declines in suitable habitat, and shifts in suitable habitat northward. Furthermore, we show that west and east Greenlandic polar bears are morphologically, and ecologically distinct, putatively driven by regional biotic and genetic differences. Together, we provide insights into the vulnerability of polar bears to environmental change and how the Arctic marine ecosystem plays a vital role in shaping the evolutionary and ecological trajectories of its inhabitants.

Multi‐Year Predictability of Global Sea Surface Temperature Using Model‐Analogs

AbstractThe multi‐year predictability of global sea surface temperature (SST) is examined by applying a model‐analog method to four control simulations to make forecasts at leads of 1–36 months over 1961–2015. The forecasts are found to have skill for annual mean SST at Year 2 (i.e., leads of 13–24 months) or even Year 3 (i.e., leads of 25–36 months) in the tropical Pacific, the North and South Pacific, the southwest Indian Ocean, and the northwestern tropical Atlantic. The seasonality in forecast skill suggests that July is the best time to initialize multi‐year forecasts. The evolution of forecast skill for tropical Pacific SSTs indicates that the predictability of some El Niño Southern Oscillation events is nearly the same at leads of 6 and 18 or 24 months. Further, these El Niño and La Niña events can be predicted at leads of up to 24 and 30 months, respectively.

Capturing Equatorial Pacific Variability With Multivariate Sr‐U Coral Thermometry

AbstractSr‐U, a coral‐based paleothermometer, corrects for the effects of Rayleigh Fractionation on Sr/Ca by regressing multiple, paired U/Ca and Sr/Ca values. Prior applications of Sr‐U captured mean annual sea surface temperatures (SSTs), inter‐annual variability, and long‐term trends. However, because many Sr/Ca‐U/Ca pairs are needed for a single Sr‐U value as originally formulated, the temporal resolution of the proxy is typically limited to 1 year. Here, we address this limitation by applying laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA‐ICPMS) to three Porites colonies from Jarvis and Nikumaroro Islands in the central equatorial Pacific (CEP), generating ∼25 Sr/Ca‐U/Ca pairs per month of skeletal growth. Both Sr/Ca and U/Ca vary significantly over small (sub‐mm) length scales and support the calculation of Sr‐U values using the original regression method. Over the represented temperature range of 24–31°C, the Sr/Ca‐U/Ca‐SST relationships are nonlinear, a finding consistent with predictions of the Rayleigh model. To reflect this non‐linearity, we developed a calibration using multivariate nonlinear regression. The multivariate, three‐coral calibration was applied to 20 years of monthly resolved Sr/Ca and U/Ca of a coral interval not included in the calibration, yielding RMSE = 0.73°C and r2 = 0.85 (p < 0.05; df = 256). The multivariate calibration performed significantly better than Sr/Ca alone (r2 = 0.28). Applying the new calibration to a subfossil Porites from Kiritimati Atoll, CEP (2200 Before Present) yields equivalent phase and amplitude of interannual variability, but water temperatures ∼1.6°C cooler than they are in this region today.

Future climate change in the Northern Indian Ocean as simulated with a high-resolution regional earth system model

This study examines the future climate change in the South Asia region during 2070–2099 with respect to the historical period (1975–2004) under RCP8.5 scenario using a high-resolution regional earth system model. We found substantial changes in the key climatic parameters over the South Asia region including ocean biological productivity, however, the magnitude of response varies spatially. A substantial increase (> 2.5 °C) in the projected annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) was found over the Indian Ocean with the highest increase (~ 3.4 °C) locally in the northern part of the Arabian Sea and in the Persian Gulf, SST changes being significant throughout the study area with 95% confidence level. The changes in the sea surface salinity showed strong spatial variability with the highest freshening over northern Bay of Bengal and highest salinity in the Persian Gulf followed by northern Arabian Sea. The amount of annual-mean precipitation will substantially increase over the eastern coast of the Bay of Bengal (up to 1.5–2.0 mm/day) and along the equator in the band 10° S–10° N (0.5–1.5 mm/day), while it will decrease over the western part of the Bay of Bengal and in the northern states of India (− 0.5 to 1.0 mm/day). The most pronounced increase of precipitation rate in the future climate will occur over India (3–5 mm/day) and the eastern coasts of the Bay of Bengal (> 5 mm/day) during the monsoon period, and over the equatorial band (2–3 mm/day) during the post-monsoon period, with all precipitation changes indicated above being significant at 95% confidence level.

A Comparison Study of Mg/Ca‐, Alkenone‐, and TEX86‐Derived Temperatures for the Brazilian Margin

AbstractThe reconstruction of accurate sea‐surface temperatures (SST) is of utmost importance due to the ocean's central role in the global climate system. Yet, a number of environmental processes might bias reliable SST estimations. Here, we investigate the fidelity of SST reconstructions for the western tropical South Atlantic (WTSA) for the interval covered by Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 6–5, utilizing a core collected off eastern Brazil at ∼20°S. This interval was selected as previous SST estimates based on Mg/Ca ratios of planktic foraminifera suggested a peculiar pooling of warm surface waters in the WTSA during MIS 6 despite glacial boundary conditions. To ground‐truth the Mg/Ca‐based SST data we generated SST reconstructions on the same core material using the alkenone and TEX86 paleothermometers. Comparison with alkenone‐based temperature estimates corroborate the previous Mg/Ca‐based SST reconstructions, supporting the suggestion of a warm‐water anomaly during MIS 6. In contrast, TEX86‐derived temperatures, albeit representing annual mean SST in recent core top samples, are up to 6°C colder than Mg/Ca‐ and alkenone‐based SST reconstructions. We interpret the periods of anomalously cold TEX86‐temperatures as a result of a vertical migration of the TEX86 producers (heterotrophic marine Thaumarchaeota) toward greater water depths, following food availability during phases of enhanced fluvial suspension input. Likewise, the data suggest that alkenone‐based SST are, albeit to a minor degree when compared to TEX86, affected by river run‐off and/or a seasonal bias in the growth season of haptophyte algae.

Landscape and Marine Environmental Factors Jointly Regulate the Intertidal Species Richness and Community Structure in the Islands of South Korea

Most studies on island biogeography have focused on the terrestrial taxa; however, there are few studies on the drivers of diversity and community structure of intertidal organisms on islands. We evaluated the effect of landscape and marine environmental factors on the species richness (SR), functional diversity (FD), and community structure (SES.MFD) of intertidal invertebrates among the overall, inhabited, and uninhabited islands. Using the data on the intertidal organisms from 78 islands in South Korea, we implemented variable selection and piecewise structural equation modeling to determine the causal relationships between the SR, FD, and SES.MFD with four landscapes (i.e., island area, coastline length, distance from the mainland, and structural connectivity) and three marine environment factors (i.e., mean annual sea surface temperature variation, wind speed, and evapotranspiration). The coastline length had a positive effect on the SR and SES.MFD in the overall islands including inhabited and uninhabited islands. The SR and FD were negatively affected by the variation in sea surface temperature. The relative importance of the landscape and marine environmental factors differed between the inhabited and uninhabited islands. That is, the inhabited islands were mainly affected by the coastline length, whereas uninhabited islands were regulated by marine environmental factors. Our results demonstrated that the biotic factors of the island intertidal ecosystems are controlled by the interactions between the biotic and various environmental factors. Moreover, the results emphasize that the water stress on the intertidal organisms due to climate change may lead to a loss of biodiversity and functional clustering.

The Lower Pliocene marine gastropods of Santa Maria Island, Azores: Taxonomy and palaeobiogeographic implications.

In this work, all the Lower Pliocene gastropod assemblages of Santa Maria Island are revised. These all form part of the Touril Complex. Seventy-seven species are identified representing 61 genera. Two species are described as new: Bittium miradouroense nov. sp. and Erato mayeri nov. sp. The name Tritonium secans Bronn in Reiss 1862 is considered a junior subjective synonym of Monoplex comptus (A. Adams, 1855). Pleurotoma perturrita Bronn in Reiss 1862 is considered a junior subjective synonym of Crassopleura maravignae (Bivona, 1838). However, due to the difficulties in collecting from these deposits, this is likely to be a considerable underestimate of the original diversity of local Early Pliocene gastropod faunas. The assemblage reflects a fully tropical with mean annual sea surface temperatures (SSTs) estimated about 3.7°C to 6.3°C higher than the present-day 20.6°C, and with mean monthly SSTs ranging from 20°C to 28°C, with six months with mean SSTs over 24°C. The assemblages all represent relatively shallow water, fully saline marine environments. At genus level the assemblage is typical of that seen in the tropical Mediterranean-West African Palaeobiogeographical Province during the early Pliocene (MPPMU1; roughly equivalent to the Zanclean and earliest Piacenzian). At species level, 35% of the species taxa found in Santa Maria are also found in the Mediterranean during MPPMU1. There is a much weaker association with the northern warm temperate Pliocene Boreal-Celtic Province, with only 17% of species occurring in both. Moreover, most of those are ubiquitous European species with both wide geographic and stratigraphic distributions. The assemblage is relatively endemic (29%) suggesting that the Azorean subprovince/ecoregion, which is recognised today, was already in place in the Lower Pliocene. A small number of tonnoidean species found in Santa Maria are species known to have had an amphiatlantic distribution during the Pliocene, and for Distorsio mcgintyi Emerson & Puffer, 1953, a well-known and widely distributed tropical American Atlantic species from the Early Miocene to present-day, its presence in Santa Maria marks the most easterly range expansion for the species, as today is not found in the Azores.

Sources of Uncertainty in the Time of Emergence of Tropical Pacific Climate Change Signal: Role of Internal Variability

Abstract Determining the time of emergence of anthropogenic climate change signals from natural variability, for both the tropical Pacific mean state and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are critical for early climate warning and adaptation planning. However, there remains considerable uncertainty in estimating those times of emergence in state-of-the-art climate models. In this study, the role of internal variability in the uncertainty of the times of emergence of tropical Pacific annual-mean sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall, and ENSO-related SST and rainfall are investigated by using three large ensembles of model simulations under the historical and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, as well as the multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under the historical and SSP5–8.5 emission scenarios. Specific attention is paid to the eastern equatorial Pacific. It is found that internal variability contributes to less than half of the total uncertainty in both the times of emergence of annual-mean SST and rainfall in all the three large ensembles, with more contribution to the latter than to the former. Hence, model differences dominate. Conversely, internal variability contributes to a major part of the total uncertainty in the times of emergence of ENSO-related SST and rainfall in one large ensemble that has sufficient members to show emergent signals. These results imply that we could have a relatively high confidence in claiming that anthropogenic climate change has impacted the annual-mean state, if an emergent annual-mean signal is observed in the real world. However, in claiming changes in ENSO variability, the signal is easily obscured by internal variability.

Understanding Models' Global Sea Surface Temperature Bias in Mean State: From CMIP5 to CMIP6

AbstractThis paper evaluates sea surface temperature (SST) biases of coupled models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better than CMIP5 ones in reproducing SST climatology, with lower multi‐model ensemble mean (MME) globally averaged absolute bias (1.17 vs. 1.31 K). MME bias in global mean annual SST shifts from cooling (−0.09 ± 0.52 K) to warming (0.23 ± 0.60 K). Regionally, in CMIP6 cooling biases over the Northwest Pacific and North Atlantic are reduced by 20% and 18%, while warming biases over the Northeast Pacific, Southeast Atlantic and Southern Ocean are increased by 25%, 16% and 107% respectively. These changes are mainly attributed to the combined effects from aggravated positive (or alleviated negative) bias in clear‐sky surface downward longwave radiation, and alleviated negative bias in cloud radiative effect, partially reduced by enhanced cooling bias in clear‐sky surface downward shortwave radiation.

Proxy‐Model Comparison for the Eocene‐Oligocene Transition in Southern High Latitudes

AbstractThe Eocene‐Oligocene transition (EOT) marks the shift from greenhouse to icehouse conditions at 34 Ma, when a permanent ice sheet developed on Antarctica. Climate modeling studies have recently assessed the drivers of the transition globally. Here we revisit those experiments for a detailed study of the southern high latitudes in comparison to the growing number of mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) and mean air temperature (MAT) proxy reconstructions, allowing us to assess proxy‐model temperature agreement and refine estimates for the magnitude of the pCO2 forcing of the EOT. We compile and update published proxy temperature records on and around Antarctica for the late Eocene (38–34 Ma) and early Oligocene (34–30 Ma). Compiled SST proxies cool by up to 3°C and MAT by up to 4°C between the timeslices. Proxy data were compared to previous climate model simulations representing pre‐ and post‐EOT, typically forced with a halving of pCO2. We scaled the model outputs to identify the magnitude of pCO2 change needed to drive a commensurate change in temperature to best fit the temperature proxies. The multi‐model ensemble needs a 30 or 33% decrease in pCO2, to best fit MAT or SST proxies respectively. These proxy‐model intercomparisons identify declining pCO2 as the primary forcing of EOT cooling, with a magnitude (200 or 243 ppmv) approaching that of the pCO2 proxies (150 ppmv). However individual model estimates span a decrease of 66–375 ppmv, thus proxy‐model uncertainties are dominated by model divergence.

A regime shift in North Pacific annual mean sea surface temperature in 2013/14

This study revealed a new regime shift in the North Pacific annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in 2013/14, robust in multiple SST data sets. This regime shift shows a horseshoe pattern with warming SST along the North American western coast and toward the Central Pacific. It suggests a phase reversal of the Victoria Mode (VM) and it seems unrelated to the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Associated with this regime shift, the annual surface air temperature significantly enhanced over the high-latitude landmass after 2014, whereas it declined over northeastern Canada and southwestern Greenland. The annual precipitation generally increased (decreased) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere landmass monsoon regions. There are no regime shifts in Equatorial Central-East Pacific SST and the intensity and locations of the Aleutian Low around 2013/14. These facts suggest the regime shift of North Pacific SST in 2013/14 may not originate from the decadal variations of the midlatitude atmosphere and tropical ocean. The extensive influence of this regime shift in 2013/14 on the atmospheric, oceanic and ecological systems warrants further investigation.

3-Hydroxy fatty acids as proxies for seawater temperature and pH in the eastern China marginal seas

3-Hydroxy fatty acids (3-OH-FAs) have recently been proposed as proxies for terrestrial, lacustrine and marine environment reconstruction. However, their application in the latter is not yet fully understood. Here we analyzed 3-OH-FAs in surface sediments from the eastern China marginal seas (ECMS), aiming to explore the application of 3-OH-FA-based proxies in marine temperature and pH reconstruction. Results showed that both the empirical mean annual air temperature (MAAT) proxies RAN15 and RAN17 (ratio of anteiso to normal isomers for C15 and C17 homologues, respectively), and the mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) proxy RAN13 were significantly correlated with SST (with RAN15 showing the strongest correlation and highest amplitude response), indicating the applicability of 3-OH-FA-based proxies developed in terrestrial and marine settings in the ECMS. The strongest correlation of RAN15 with SST is probably attributable to the relatively higher abundance and larger variation range of anteiso C15 homologues in the sediments. Moreover, the above proxies were also significantly correlated with mean annual bottom water temperature (BWT) with slightly stronger correlation than with SST, suggesting an important contribution of bottom layer to sedimentary 3-OH-FAs. In particular, the temperature proxies showed marked seasonal variation and a stronger correlation with BWT during warm seasons. A novel temperature proxy (RAI15, the ratio of anteiso to iso C15 isomers) provided strong correlations with BWT in summer and autumn, suggesting that RAI15 is a robust potential BWT proxy for warm seasons in the ECMS. Based on the current data, the sedimentary 3-OH FAs could be a mixture of lipids both produced from the surface and the bottom water layers, and which layer sea temperature the proxies better reflect need to be further explored although a slightly stronger correlation with BWT than SST was found in the present study. In addition, the empirical soil 3-OH-FA-based pH proxies were not suitable in this study, although the influence of pH on marine 3-OH-FAs was confirmed based on a locally developed calibration. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the potential use of bacterial 3-OH-FAs as environmental proxies in temperate marginal seas.

Colpophyllia natans From Tobago, a Novel Paleoclimate Archive for Reconstructing Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic

AbstractMassive, long‐lived Siderastrea and Diploria corals are species commonly used for sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions in the North Atlantic. However, they are rarely found to exceed 200 years in age. Thus, it is imperative to continuously develop alternative taxa for paleoreconstructions. Colpophyllia natans, a highly populous tropical North Atlantic coral, are known to grow large colonies, potentially containing environmental records spanning several hundreds of years. However, its low density and complicated architecture poses a challenge in extracting climate signals from this coral. This study presents the first monthly‐resolved climate calibration of Colpophyllia natans and validates its utility as a new paleoarchive, relative to Siderastrea siderea. Linear regressions of monthly and interannual coral Sr/Ca with instrumental SST reveal robust, significant relationships (p < 0.05), indicating that microsampling along a single thecal wall of C. natans allowed for robust climate reconstructions. Additionally, both corals capture similar SST variations (t‐test, p ≥ 0.05), which allowed for the generation of a single, composite interspecies SST record that correlates with instrumental SST even more strongly (p < 0.0001) than the individual corals. Mean annual and boreal summer interspecies SST correlate significantly with North Atlantic SST indices (p < 0.05), demonstrating the ability to capture regional, long‐term SST trends in the North Atlantic. Spatial correlation maps of boreal winter interspecies SST to instrumental SST and geopotential height anomalies reveal coherent spatial patterns linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our findings suggest that Colpophyllia natans has enormous potential as a new paleoclimate archive for reconstructing temporal and spatial SST variability in the tropical Atlantic.